Why I Welcome the Stillness

July 18, 2020
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It’s just after noon as a smile crosses my face. My gaze turns from the Azaleas in the garden to my phone. I haven’t checked the markets since I awoke six hours ago.

Yesterday I told myself to get away from the office. The day the markets ripped open in March our team at Jarvis Labs has been full throttle.

In a satisfying way, I made it six hours more hours than I expected. The decision to take time off was simple. Rest before the next stretch. The way I arrived at this decision is similar to how a racer approaches a marathon. In the days before an event, training is non-existent. The time to prepare is gone. If you aren’t ready a few days before the race, then you’re not ready. The time before the race is about centering your body and your mind in order to perform at your peak.

This centering is what our team is doing now. We’re prepared. Our systems are set. We are monitoring the regular hourly and daily ebbs and flow of crypto. And while doing so in the back of our minds the team is aware of a rising tide getting ready to take the market by surprise.

Now, patience during quiet times is easy. It’s having patience in the storm that separates us from our competitors. To have patience during a frenzy isn’t a natural skill. Nor am I pretending to be a master of such things.
Instead, I’m fully aware my strength lies in our trading system Jarvis. In fact, if it weren’t for our trading system alerting us of the undercurrents at play, I don’t think my day today would be spent resting for the next stretch of volatility.

It’s the confidence I have in the data we feed to Jarvis and the reliability of the results which give me the patience to succeed. Let me explain.

As you may know, the market is at a relative standstill. Volatility hasn’t been this low since November 2018 when price went from $6,400 to nearly $3,000 like a hot knife through normandy butter. And similar to then, we see the amount of open positions rising. It’s an analog scenario.

Just like then, traders are placing their bets in either direction. Some, like us, are hedging their bets by employing various strategies. One of which is one that profits as volatility rises. Others are leveraging their biased beliefs in the hopes price goes in one direction, which is a fool’s errand.

Volatility is getting so low, it’s reminiscent of the moment just before the dealer calls out “no more bets’ as hands frantically place last second bets. Because when the dealer makes that call, there are no more second guesses. You only anxiously hold your breath for the verdict.

The main difference between the roulette table and crypto is the odds can be stacked in our favor. I mentioned earlier the undercurrents at play in crypto. These are macro effects at play showing us the result beforehand. This type of thing isn’t noticeable on a chart, volume profile, or some new trendy indicator. It’s visible in on-chain. It’s real… It’s a reading of the actual event itself before it shows up in the market.

So what’s the reading from Jarvis telling us?

It’s telling us two things. It’s bearish and bullish.

Yes, you read that correctly… both down and up. Don’t throw your hands in the air just yet. Let me unravel that a bit.

Jarvis is reading on-chain activity and expecting the price to head lower. And in order to respect our subscribers, I won’t dive into just how low. Just know it’s looking lower… Before price reverses and heads higher. To be clear, a lot higher.

The higher part is a bit easier to understand since the Jarvis Index is a chart we’ve shared before. It’s a long-term trend that’s incredibly bullish. And any dip lower will provide one of the greatest buying opportunities for at least the next year.

So if I’m armed with this knowledge, there are several ways to play it. And it’s these ways I’ll get into this week. So stay tuned.

Until next time, we’re on the scent…

Ben Lilly

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About Jarvis Labs: We are a team of passionate professionals with experience in data science, software engineering, economics and trading who came together to develop Jarvis, an artificial intelligence / machine learning software that tracks market movers. We’ve since gone on to become a one stop shop for crypto traders by building new tools, metrics, and platforms every day. Stop by Jarvis Labs to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter to learn what market mover is driving the market today.