Your Morning Routine Can Lead to More Success
When you woke up, what was the second and third crypto stat you checked?
Price tends to be hands down the first stat checked. But the second and third… Do you remember? I bring this up because this is where traders deviate. Some check the news, others look at altcoin prices, and a few comb through on-chain… At Jarvis, we lean towards data.
As for me, I check sentiment data.
Specifically, what is the flow of crypto for exchanges and miners? This piece of information serves as my bias for the day. If exchanges are having a lot of BTC leave exchanges and a lot of tether entering them, I can assume trader sentiment is bullish.
As for miners, are they selling more or less bitcoin than they earn? If they are selling less bitcoin than they earn, then that’s another bullish sign. Combining these two bits of data I feel like I gain an edge over the rest of the market.
The third thing I check can vary, but it’s always data. But the specific type of data can range from open positions for institutional traders, options data, long/short ratios, put/call ratio, wallet activity, and more.
Today, it was the difficulty. And to be franker, the stat found me. The difficulty dropped by approximately 10% today. And it’s something you should be aware of. Especially in the context of the recent drop from $10,400 to $8,600 just a few days ago.
A drop in difficulty doesn’t mean much on the surface. But digging through the archives using Jarvis, it paints another picture.
When the difficulty drops like this, every single time over the last five years price has dropped at least $500. I’ll say it again… Every time difficulty has dropped, the price dropped soon after. You can see it in the chart below.
The red vertical lines are when the difficulty dropped. And the light blue boxes show how long it took for the drop to take place and the magnitude of the drop. Now the logic behind it requires some leaps, so I’ll spare that explanation… Not to mention I’m not a big fan of assumptions.
Data tells me what something is and the probabilities of an event. Keeping decisions cut and dry like this is similar to counting cards in blackjack. I want the odds in my favor. And based on probabilities, I’ll make a decision. So when Jarvis tells me 100% of the time when X happens, Y occurs… my odds look good. Will it work this time too?
On a separate and somewhat related bit of news…
We’ve been hard at work. The interest in what Jarvis Labs is doing has grown considerably over the last few months. To keep up with the workload we’ve brought in some helping hands. Which led to us creating some new products for you… Free Products to be specific.
We really look forward to showing you what we’ve been busy building at Jarvis Labs.
Until then, we’re on the scent.
P.S. A sneak-peak of what you would be getting on Daily Espresso soon…